
Deep Cuts to Food Stamps and Medicaid : How Far Can Trump Go?
- foodfightadmin
- November 7, 2024
- Federal, Hunger In America, SNAP
- adlps, ads-3
- 0 Comments
As Donald Trump prepares to step back into the presidency with a Republican majority in both the Senate and House, the potential impact on America’s poorest communities and the government programs they depend on looms large. Trump’s track record indicates a desire to curtail programs like food stamps and Medicaid, two critical components of the national safety net that provide essential support to millions. While his previous efforts fell short, the current Republican momentum could bring the changes Trump once pursued closer to reality.
Food Stamps** Face Steep Cuts**
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), more commonly known as food stamps, is one of the most vital resources for Americans in poverty. Nearly 75 percent of SNAP recipients live at or below the poverty line, with over 20 percent relying solely on SNAP for income. The share of single-parent households living on less than $2 per day dropped from nearly 10 percent to under 3 percent due to SNAP, highlighting the program’s role in alleviating extreme poverty.
SNAP funding and policy changes are traditionally reviewed as part of the farm bill, which expired on September 30 and will be up for renewal next year. The House Agriculture Committee, chaired by Republican Glenn Thompson, proposed limiting the Department of Agriculture’s ability to adjust SNAP’s Thrifty Food Plan. This adjustment, initiated by the Biden administration, led to a nearly 30 percent increase in benefits – a change the proposed farm bill would eliminate, resulting in a $30 billion cut over the next decade.
Trump has long pushed for even more sweeping cuts. His previous budgets included plans to slash SNAP by nearly 30 percent and add new work requirements for recipients. In a highly controversial move, Trump also advocated for a “Harvest Box” plan, which would replace cash-based benefits with a government selected box of shelf stable foods. However, the Harvest Box proposal faces opposition from major retailers like Walmart and Kroger, whose businesses rely heavily on revenue from SNAP customers and would likely lobby against any measure that redirects funds from consumer spending to government provided food. Despite this resistance, with leadership in both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees supporting Trump’s approach, the risk of substantial cuts to SNAP remains.
Medicaid** Cuts: New Push, Old Obstacles**
Health care programs such as Medicaid, a crucial support for low-income individuals and families, could also face serious reductions. Medicaid covers about 76 million Americans, including disabled individuals, children, and elderly people. The ACA expanded Medicaid, and Biden’s 2021 stimulus further strengthened subsidies for ACA marketplace plans by broadening income eligibility and enhancing tax credits for individuals purchasing private insurance. But these expanded benefits are set to expire by 2025, and it is unlikely a Republican controlled Congress would vote to extend them.
Trump’s previous budgets frequently targeted Medicaid, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that his 2020 budget plan would have reduced Medicaid and ACA-related health spending by $1.1 trillion over a decade – an over 17 percent cut from projected spending levels. Although Trump’s proposals lacked detailed plans in his 2021 budget, his three main strategies for Medicaid reform have been clear:
Repealing the ACA’s Medicaid Expansion and replacing it with block grants for states to manage as they see fit.
Implementing a Per Capita Cap meaning states would receive only a fixed amount per covered person, regardless of medical costs.
Imposing Work Requirements on able-bodied adults receiving Medicaid, mandating employment, job training, or volunteer work to qualify.
These strategies reflect a fundamental shift in Medicaid’s purpose by reducing federal spending obligations and giving states more control. According to research by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, capping per-capita spending would have forced most states to make drastic cuts by 2020. For instance, cuts would have averaged 12 percent for disabled individuals in Pennsylvania and 13 percent in Kentucky. In California, Medicaid spending for seniors would have faced a 17 percent reduction.
Medicaid currently pays providers about 28 percent less than Medicare, which itself pays roughly 22 percent less than private insurers. Thus, further cuts to Medicaid payments would likely reduce the number of providers accepting Medicaid, making it harder for low-income patients to access care. States facing these cuts would likely tighten eligibility, potentially excluding many people from Medicaid.
While Trump’s proposed cuts to Medicaid might face hurdles, moderate Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, who opposed similar cuts in 2017, remain in office. Their support, along with a few other moderate Republicans, could hinder Trump’s sweeping Medicaid reform agenda. With an anticipated narrow majority, the need for unity in the Senate and the possibility of resistance from a handful of House Republicans makes passage of major cuts challenging, though not impossible.
Child Tax Credit: Limited Expansion Potential
Another area of interest is the child tax credit, a key program providing financial support for working families. During the Biden administration, the child tax credit was temporarily expanded to up to $3,600 per child in 2021, offering a substantial boost for low-income families and making the credit fully refundable for the first time. Vice President Kamala Harris had campaigned on reviving this 2021 expansion and further suggested a $6,000 “baby bonus” for families with newborns. However, these provisions are unlikely to be revisited under a Trump administration.
Instead, the child tax credit is likely to see more modest changes. When the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire next year, including their doubling of the credit from $1,000 to $2,000, Congress may revisit the credit. Republicans have expressed openness to raising the credit amount, though they continue to insist on a “phase-in” tied to earned income. JD Vance, the incoming Vice President, has previously supported a $5,000 “baby bonus,” which outpaced Harris’s $6,000 proposal, and Republican Jason Smith, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, recently worked with Democrat Ron Wyden on an altered phase-in structure.
Yet, extending the tax provisions Trump prioritized in 2017, like exempting tips and Social Security income from taxation and deducting interest on car loans, will compete for priority amid rising federal interest costs. As a result, costly expansions of the child tax credit may face limitations in the final budget package.
Outlook on the Safety Net
Since 1979, the average benefit from safety net programs for low-income Americans has grown from $5,300 to $15,800, reflecting a more than threefold increase in federal commitment to alleviating poverty. This steady expansion of aid has contributed significantly to reducing poverty rates in the U.S. Despite Trump’s previously attempted cuts during his first term and efforts by Presidents Bush and Reagan to roll back similar programs, the safety net has endured. Whether it can withstand the policies proposed by Trump’s administration this time will depend largely on a few key Republican holdouts in Congress and a continued commitment to preserving the core of the American safety net.