A recent attempt to expand work requirements for federal food aid appears to increase federal spending by $2.1 billion over the course of ten years, contradicting the cuts GOP lawmakers had promised. The compromise reached between House Republicans and President Joe Biden may have backfired, as they secured new work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) for some able-bodied recipients, but had to drop work requirements for other, more vulnerable recipients such as veterans and homeless individuals.

According to estimates released by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), new work requirements would result in savings but the additional benefits advocated by Democrats would incur higher costs and lead to 80,000 additional program eligible individuals per month. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy dismissed these estimates, expressing confidence that savings would be significant in the long run, and claiming that many people would find jobs as a result of the work requirements.

Although Republicans are asserting victory on the debt compromise, it remains uncertain whether new budget estimates will affect Republican votes. The debt bill introduces higher age limits for work requirements, gradually increasing the maximum age from 49 to 54 by 2025, but expires five years later, reverting the maximum age back to 49. The CBO estimates that the new work rules alone would reduce SNAP spending by $6.5 billion over a decade, but exemptions added by Democrats for veterans, homeless individuals, and others would cost $6.8 billion during the same period. Moreover, the bill would incur an additional $1.2 billion in costs during the phase-in period. McCarthy and House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson believe the CBO estimate is incorrect, suggesting that some recipients, already exempt from work requirements, may have been double counted.

The agreement also includes changes to the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program, cutting cash aid to families with children. Although adjustments in the bill fall short of what the House had initially proposed and are estimated to save only $5 million, they involve modifications to a credit that allows states to require fewer recipients to work. This “caseload reduction credit” permits states to reduce the number of people subject to work requirements based on the decline in the number of people receiving assistance compared to 2005 figures. The proposed bill updates and adjusts this credit to make it harder for states to avoid work requirements.