
An Escalating Threat of ‘Flash Droughts’ for Farmers
- foodfightadmin
- May 26, 2023
- Agriculture, Climate Change
- rsc pages
- 0 Comments
Flash droughts or rapid-onset droughts can wreak havoc on agriculture when they occur at the wrong time. Unfortunately, these events are becoming more frequent due to global warming. A recently published study reveals the risk of flash droughts is projected to increase in all major agricultural regions worldwide in the coming decades. The study found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate, croplands in North America and Europe could face a 49% and 53% annual chance of flash droughts by the end of the century. Europe and the Amazon would experience the most significant increases globally.
Although reducing emissions can mitigate the risk to some extent, even under a low-emissions scenario, flash droughts are still expected to increase by approximately 6% globally. These weather phenomena can have severe consequences, causing crop losses and often forcing ranchers to sell off their livestock. In 2022, a flash drought on the Mississippi River disrupted barge traffic, affecting more than 90% of U.S. agricultural exports.
Flash droughts pose risks to staple crops like paddy rice in northeast China and other parts of Asia, as well as other primary crops across Europe. Ranches suffer dearly, with the 2012 drought in Central America leading to scarcity of forage and water for cattle, forcing ranchers to sell part of their herd. Risks to energy and water supplies are also a factor. Europe’s summer drought in 2022 resulted in mass power plant shutdowns.
Adapting agriculture to the increasing risk of flash droughts requires improved rainfall and temperature forecasts, enabling farmers to make informed decisions about planting and other crucial activities. Currently, forecasting flash droughts within the midrange time window is challenging. Efforts are underway to enhance the lead time and accuracy of flash drought forecasts, including experimental maps and monitoring tools. Increasing awareness among farmers and forecasters about the potential for flash droughts based on short-term forecasts can also help mitigate the impacts.
As global temperatures rise, the challenges for farmers and ranchers continue to grow. Understanding the risks posed by flash droughts is essential for managing water resources and preparing for future challenges.