Congress is currently drafting a new multiyear farm bill, which will profoundly impact U.S. farmers, the food they produce, and how it reaches consumers. This legislation, which has been enacted 20 times since 1933, is extensive, complex, and expensive, with the next farm bill estimated to cost taxpayers a staggering $1.5 trillion over the course of 10 years.

While the primary focus of farm bills is typically food-related, such as supporting rural broadband access, biofuels, and aiding small towns in purchasing police cars, these bills attract a wide range of interest groups with diverse agendas. Organizations like the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Farmers Union, and the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition advocate for farm subsidies, crop insurance, and the interests of small farmers and ranchers. Industry-specific groups, including cattlemen, fruit and vegetable growers, and organic producers, also voice their concerns.

Environmental and conservation groups aim to shape policies related to land use and sustainable farming practices, while hunger and nutrition organizations focus on the bill’s sections concerning food aid. Rural counties, hunters and anglers, bankers, and numerous other organizations each have their own priorities and demands.

Given the intricacies of this process, the complexity of the challenges involved and critical 2024 elections on the horizon, it could take until 2025 for Congress to craft and pass the new farm bill. Several key issues are shaping discussions surrounding this legislation and will ultimately shape the future of the U.S. food system.

One major point of contention is the high cost associated with farm bills. Given the recent enactment of sizable bills to address the pandemic, counter inflation, invest in infrastructure, and boost domestic manufacturing, the timing of this year’s farm bill is particularly tricky. Additionally, there is ongoing debate over raising the debt ceiling, which restricts the federal government’s borrowing capacity to pay its bills. While Agriculture Committee leaders and farm groups argue for increased funding to strengthen the food and farm sector, reformers advocate for capping payments to farmers and limiting eligibility. They argue the current system disproportionately benefits large farms producing commodity crops, while providing inadequate support to small and medium-sized producers.

The largest portion of farm bill funding is allocated to nutrition assistance, primarily through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. The inclusion of nutrition assistance in the farm bill dates back to the 1970s, when it was added to secure votes from an increasingly urban nation. Currently, over 42 million Americans, including nearly 1 in every 4 children, depend on SNAP. Along with other smaller programs, SNAP is projected to consume 80% of the funds allocated in the new farm bill, up from 76% in 2018. The costs of SNAP have increased due to temporary pandemic-related benefit expansions, which expired in March 2023. The Department of Agriculture recalculated the Thrifty Food Plan, determining that recipients needed an additional $12-$16 per month, or 40 cents per meal, to afford a healthy diet. SNAP will likely be the focus of intense budget battles, with Republicans seeking to rein it in while Democrats generally support its expansion.

Climate change solutions have also become a central topic in farm bill discussions. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act allocated $19.5 billion to the Department of Agriculture for programs addressing climate change. Environmentalists and farmers alike welcomed this investment, which aims to promote climate smart farming practices and incentivize carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. However, the large amount of funding designated for climate change initiatives has attracted members of Congress looking for additional resources.

There is growing demand for better standards for measuring, reporting, and verifying actions that protect or increase soil carbon. Interest in “carbon farming” and practices like no-till agriculture and cover crops, which enhance carbon storage in soil, is on the rise. Yet concerns have been raised about the need for further research and standards to prevent greenwashing and ensure genuine environmental benefits before establishing carbon markets based on these practices.

The complexity of the farm bill is compounded by the fact that a significant number Congress members were elected after the 2018 farm bill was enacted, making this their first experience with the process. Many new legislators are likely to follow the lead of more senior lawmakers, potentially favoring traditional decision-making and making it easier for established interests, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation and major commodity groups, to maintain support for revenue support programs for large-scale operations. Conversely, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has emphasized the need to focus on less-profitable operations in the new farm bill, even though total farm income reached a record $162 billion in 2022. The outcome of this debate will demonstrate whether Congress supports the status quo in agriculture or a more diverse and sustainable farm system.

In conclusion, crafting the next farm bill is a complex and contentious process with significant implications for U.S. farmers, the food system, and various interest groups. The cost of the bill, the fate of nutrition assistance programs like SNAP, the integration of climate change solutions, and the influence of inexperienced legislators are all critical issues that will shape the future of agriculture in the United States. Tough policy choices lie ahead, and it remains to be seen how Congress will navigate these challenges and determine their priorities for the next farm bill.