Last week, official confirmations emerged from the Kremlin about an impending meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, set to occur on Russian soil in the near future. According to Omer Celik, spokesperson for Turkey’s ruling AK Party, the discussions will revolve around a new framework for a previously brokered grain deal, which was initiated by Erdogan in July 2022 and subsequently terminated by Putin nearly a year later.

This agreement had provided Ukraine with the ability to export grain, a fundamental food source for developing countries worldwide, via Odesa’s seaports on the Black Sea. Some may be tempted to hope that Erdogan possesses unique prowess to persuade his authoritarian contemporary to reinstate the agreement, consequently warding off global hunger. However, such expectations are misplaced.

Putin has gestured towards using food security as a weapon, aiming to elicit a surrender from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and compel Western powers to withdraw their support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, serving to fortify his mass starvation strategy.

Employing non-military means — even those deemed untenable by Western standards — aligns with Russia’s asymmetric military strategy. This strategy has been incrementally conceptualized under Putin’s directive since his accession to power over two decades ago, greatly influenced by the intellectual prowess of the Russian General Staff, a vital part of the Russian military think tank.