As Halloween approaches, consumers may find themselves paying more for their favorite trick or treats . Rising costs of key ingredients, particularly cocoa and sugar, are driving up prices, according to Nidhi Jain, an analyst at procurement intelligence firm Smart Cube. Supply chain disruptions and adverse weather conditions are the primary culprits behind the spike in candy costs this season.

Cocoa prices have surged dramatically in 2024, nearly doubling since the start of the year. In April, London cocoa prices hit an unprecedented high of GBP 10,137 per metric ton, with concerns that elevated prices could persist as the Halloween and holiday seasons approach. This price surge is largely driven by tight cocoa supplies in West Africa, where Ivory Coast and Ghana – responsible for about 60% of global cocoa production – are facing significant challenges.

Cocoa plantations in these regions have been battling adverse weather and disease outbreaks since 2023, and recent heavy rains have only worsened the situation. While rain is typically beneficial for crops, it has made cocoa plantations more vulnerable to diseases, forcing farmers to invest in costly fertilizers and pesticides, further driving up production costs. These unfavorable conditions are expected to result in a 130,000-ton deficit in the global cocoa market for the 2024-25 marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive year of a shortfall in supply.

As a result, candy manufacturers are bracing for sustained high cocoa prices, making Halloween chocolates more expensive than ever.

The price of sugar is also expected to increase in the second half of 2024, following a brief price correction earlier in the year. Supply concerns in two of the world’s largest sugar producers, Brazil and India, are contributing to the uptrend.

Brazil’s sugarcane crop, which accounts for about 90% of the country’s total sugar production, is facing continued dryness in the Center-South region. This, coupled with the potential development of La Niña weather conditions later in 2024, could further reduce sugarcane yields. La Niña typically brings dry weather and below-normal rainfall to southern Brazil, exacerbating the country’s already strained sugar output.

In India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, production is also expected to decline. The Indian Sugar Mills Association projects a 2% year-over-year drop in sugar output for the 2024-25 marketing year, primarily due to reduced acreage in key producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka. Additionally, India is likely to extend its ban on sugar exports, initially implemented in the 2023-24 marketing year due to lower production. This export ban is further driven by the country’s commitment to achieving a 20% ethanol blending rate by 2025-26, which is diverting sugarcane resources toward ethanol production.

With both Brazil and India experiencing production challenges, global sugar supplies are tightening, contributing to higher prices as demand picks up for the holiday season.

As the combination of higher cocoa and sugar prices takes hold, consumers can expect Halloween candy costs to soar. With production challenges in major cocoa and sugar-producing regions and continued supply disruptions, the price increases are likely to persist through the festive season. Manufacturers may be forced to pass these added costs onto consumers, making it a pricier Halloween for those stocking up on candy.