In what could be a defining moment for the U.S. welfare and agricultural support landscape, Mike Johnson‘s ascension to House Speaker portends a major political showdown in the coming year. Johnson, who succeeds Kevin McCarthy, brings a reputation for stringent GOP strategies aimed at overhauling key welfare initiatives, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This stance sets the stage for a potential upheaval that may ripple through the congressional races and affect President Joe Biden’s outreach to rural voters in the approaching 2024 presidential election.

A senior figure in the Republican Study Committee, Johnson has not shied away from controversy, openly criticizing the SNAP as “the most broken and bloated welfare program” in 2018. His hardline views resonate with conservative elements within the GOP, who are now urging for reforms to be entrenched in the forthcoming farm bill. This insistence on stringent measures could dismantle the traditionally bipartisan cooperation essential to passing this critical legislation—a potential setback for numerous House Republicans representing rural constituents, Johnson included.

The urgency is palpable, with the current farm bill’s deadline fast approaching at year’s end. This vital piece of legislation underpins the agriculture sector, food aid, and rural development programs across America. Representative Dusty Johnson, a South Dakota Republican, has penned a critical bill advocating for tighter work requirements within the SNAP framework. He, along with others, is championing for an expedient passage of a farm bill extension and subsequent reauthorization.

“Our farmers and Congress’s reputation stand to suffer if we fail to act promptly,” asserts Johnson, highlighting the critical nature of the situation.

Sources reveal to POLITICO that a coalition of farm-state lawmakers has been actively lobbying Speaker Johnson to incorporate an extension of the 2018 farm bill into any interim government funding solution, particularly to avert a looming federal shutdown slated for November 18. Johnson appears amenable to this approach, as indicated by conversations with GOP legislators who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Moreover, Johnson is reportedly keen to progress a House version of the farm bill in the next month, signaling an aggressive push despite the concurrent scuffle over government funding.

In a move that could recalibrate the legislative calendar, GOP lawmakers have indicated that a shorter interim funding measure by Congress would inevitably delay any House consideration of a new farm bill until 2024. This timing places the crucial bill, already a formidable undertaking in less tumultuous periods, at the mercy of the upcoming presidential election cycle, adding a layer of political complexity to its passage.

The ascendancy of Mike Johnson to the role of House Speaker is causing ripples of concern among Democrats, who fear it will embolden Republican hardliners intent on slashing nutrition spending within the farm bill. Johnson, known for his conservative stance, is facing pressure from his allies to pursue aggressive cuts and introduce new restrictions to the SNAP as part of the next farm bill. Such measures are seen as favorable to middle-class voters, they argue, even as the bill’s anticipated budget is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, sparking apprehension among a faction of GOP legislators.

Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, is championing continued efforts to enforce new work requirements and other reforms to SNAP, riding on the heels of recent restrictions incorporated into the debt deal earlier this year.

Behind the scenes, GOP aides voice confidence that Speaker Johnson will capitalize on this legislative moment. “The Mike Johnson we know is unlikely to forgo an opportunity for as many conservative victories as possible in this farm bill, and that includes substantive SNAP reforms,” shared one aide under the cloak of anonymity.

In stark opposition, Democrats, whose support may prove critical for the farm bill’s success, are countering the Republican narrative surrounding SNAP and work requirements. Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts has openly criticized Johnson’s perspective on SNAP, touting it as a vital instrument against poverty, and rebuked any notion that further cuts would be the remedy.

While new to the upper echelons of House leadership battles, Johnson is not entirely unversed in the sensitive politics of nutrition assistance. Earlier this year, as vice chair of the House GOP conference, he was part of a team tasked with diffusing intra-party tensions during the debt deal discussions with the White House, a negotiation further complicated by the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of increased federal spending on SNAP.

House Speaker Mike Johnson heralded the “landmark achievements” in recently introduced legislation, particularly emphasizing the bill’s new SNAP work requirements during a subsequent media briefing. He confidently asserted that such provisions would never have secured passage if left to the discretion of a Senate led by Chuck Schumer. The Speaker clarified that the SNAP modifications would impact primarily older, low-income Americans who do not have dependents, characterizing these updates as “common sense” measures that enjoy public support and contribute to cost-saving efforts.

“We are set on redefining these programs to be a temporary safety net rather than a permanent solution, offering a leg up rather than just a handout,” Johnson stated, underlining the pride the Republican party takes in these legislative reforms.

While Johnson is in the throes of building his leadership team, he has not yet embarked on detailed strategizing for the upcoming farm bill, as reported by three GOP lawmakers who have engaged in recent conversations with him.

However, in a more subdued fashion, Johnson has initiated discussions with select members concerning pivotal farm bill matters, two House Republicans disclosed under anonymity. The Speaker’s preliminary consultations appear to be exploratory, gauging member stances on contentious issues within the farm bill, such as potential new SNAP restrictions. These discussions are part of the GOP leadership’s broader endeavor to devise a strategic approach to the upcoming legislative challenges, as shared by one of the Republican insiders.

In a recent disclosure, a GOP senator revealed that Speaker Mike Johnson conveyed to them his legislative strategy, emphasizing that the immediate focus should be on what can successfully pass through the House, with considerations for the Senate’s Democratic majority and the prospects of final passage to be dealt with subsequently.

However, Johnson’s approach to pursue aggressive spending reductions and tighter food aid constraints could put pressure on the more vulnerable segments of the House GOP, particularly a few New York Republicans who hold seats in districts won by President Biden in 2020 and who are bracing for challenging reelection campaigns next year. Following the contentious debt limit standoff earlier this year, these members, at risk of political fallout, are generally reluctant to revisit debates on curbing food assistance for the indigent—a stance widely regarded as politically damaging within their constituencies.

In the aftermath of the debt deal, California Representative John Duarte expressed a sentiment to progress beyond the newly established SNAP requirements, signaling a desire to shift the legislative focus forward rather than dwell on past negotiations.

Concurrently, influential agricultural organizations across the United States, along with certain Republican legislators, have cautioned that any severe cuts to nutrition assistance could imperil the enactment of the forthcoming farm bill in its entirety.

G.T. Thompson, the House Agriculture Chair from Pennsylvania, who is at the forefront of crafting the House’s iteration of the bill, has explicitly stated his intention to steer clear of introducing new work mandates or substantial SNAP spending cuts that could ignite fierce Democratic opposition.

With the House Republicans poised to inevitably seek Democratic support to advance the next farm bill, owing to their slim majority and existing contention within their ranks regarding overall spending, the legislative road ahead appears challenging. Even GOP members such as Dusty Johnson acknowledge the magnitude of the task, citing the presence of “hard-liners who struggle to get to ‘yes’ on anything,” alongside “pragmatic farm-state members who are weary of the ongoing political maneuvers.”